Rice export prices will move in a narrow range of US$530-540 per tonne this year, well below $1,080 seen in April last year, while shipments will be 8.5-9.5 million tonnes in 2009, according to the Foreign Trade Department.

In January, Thailand exported 628,792 tonnes of rice worth $331 million (11.35 billion baht), down sharply from 1.01 million tonnes in the same month last year, worth $421 million.

"Thailand's rice export situation last year was phenomenal and unnatural, as concerns about a shortage prompted rice importers to accelerate their purchase orders and raise stocks," said director-general Apiradi Tantraporn.

In addition, she said several rice exporting countries such as India and Vietnam had introduced measures to bar or delay their rice exports, leading purchasers to buy Thai rice instead.

Thailand therefore saw its exports surge last year to 10.02 million tonnes, up from 9.5 million tonnes in 2007.

According to the director-general, buying countries are still concerned over the the global financial crisis. The world's credit lines have also been tightened, reducing the size of each rice purchase order.

Thai exporters could also see stiffer competition if the Indian government lifts an export ban on non-basmati rice.

India, one of the world's biggest rice producers, banned exports of non-basmati rice last year when dwindling stocks and rising prices triggered fears of shortages of the staple.

Last year, India shipped only 2.9 million tonnes - a significant decline on its usual export figure of around 5-6 million tonnes of roughly equal portions of basmati, parboiled and white rice.

But Ms Apiradi sees the global rice trade recovering in the second quarter, when inventories are set to fall.

The world's rice consumption is estimated at about 428 million tonnes of milled rice this year, up from 423.7 million tonnes in 2008. Production is about 431 million tonnes, up from 420.63 million tonnes last crop season.

Thailand's milled rice production is forecast at 18.8 million tonnes this year, up from 18.6 million in 2008.

Benchmark 100% B grade white rice was quoted by Thai exporters at $621 per tonne on Feb 11.

Source: Bangkok Post