Despite flourishing growth in farm and food exports in the first quarter, exports of agricultural products are expected to grow only slightly throughout the rest of the year, due to many negative factors.

Among these, exporters list global warming, the strengthening baht, the ongoing political chaos and rising nontariff barriers. They warn export volumes will deteriorate in the current quarter and the second half of the year.

Firstquarter food exports jumped a huge 24.2 per cent year on year to a value of Bt205 billion, thanks to the global economic recovery.

However, Pornsilp Patcharintanakul, chairman of the Board of Trade's Food and Agriculture Committee, warned food exports could actually decline, because of lowerthanexpected production.

Products that are expected to fall short of earlier production estimates over the rest of the year include vegetables, rice, cassava and sugar cane.

"The country's exports could be lower than our target because of these negative factors. On the other hand, the same negative factors could also benefit the country if they hit other countries while Thailand maintains its competitiveness to supply commodities to the world market," Pornsilp said.

Rising oil prices could also benefit the value and volume of Thailand's food exports this year, because many countries will turn more from food crops to fuel crops, he said.

To ensure continued exports of Thai food, Pornsilp said both the government and private enterprises should urgently raise their food standards to avoid nontariff barriers, which are being increasingly imposed by importing countries. Without attention to standards, Thai foods will be subject to import barriers designed to protect foreign markets.

The National Food Institute (NFI) predicts food exports will grow 10 per cent to Bt830 billion this year, from last year's value of Bt754 billion. Thailand advanced to being the world's 12thlargest food supplier last year and Asia's secondlargest food exporter after China.

Thai food enjoyed a 2.47percent share of the global market last year.

NFI vice president Amorn Ngammongkolrat said food output in the second quarter was expected to grow 6.3 per cent to a value of Bt202 billion. This would be much lower than the first quarter's growth, because of drought in many provinces.

Food exports should grow 7 per cent to Bt210 billion in the third quarter and 4.9 per cent to Bt213 billion in the fourth quarter.

The chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries' FoodProcessing Industry Club, Visit Limprana, said the ongoing political turmoil would hamper exports in the second half of the year, because a smaller number of importers were coming to Thailand's trade fairs.

Rice Exporters Association president Chookiat Ophaswongse said growth in Thai rice exports could fall short of this year's target of 9 million tonnes, perhaps reaching only 8.5 million tonnes, due to lower global demand.

As of last Friday, this year's rice exports reached 2.54 million tonnes, down 0.23 per cent year on year. Rice exports are expected to reach 1.8 million tonnes in the second quarter, he said.

Thai Tapioca Trade Association president Seree Denworalak said cassava exports were expected to fall substantially next year, due to an infestation problem that began this year.

This year's cassava production is expected to drop from 27 million tonnes to 20 million tonnes. It will tumble further, to about 15 million tonnes next year, because the infestation cannot be easily remedied, he said.

The price of cassava is now the highest ever recorded, peaking at Bt3 a kilogram. Prices that are too high can pose future problems for Thai cassava growers, because foreign processors can substitute other cereal crops for cassava, Seree added

Source: The Nation