Strong output from the northern provinces is likely to offset the flood-damaged rice crop, easing fears that Thailand could face a supply shortfall later this year.

According to Korbsook Iamsuri, the president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, output of both fragrant Hom Mali paddy and white paddy rice harvested in the Northeast is expected to rise at least 20% from the previous season.

The growth was attributed to proper water and high paddy prices set by the rice pledging programme that began earlier this month.

The Northeast region, where 33 million rai have been used to plant the main rice crop, produced 11 million tonnes of paddy last year.

"Our preliminary reports show that rice productivity in the area will record a historic high," Mrs Korbsook said.

This would overcome speculation that the country could suffer a rice shortage over the next two months due to many rice fields having been deluged.

Previously the permanent secretary for commerce, Yanyong Phuangrach, estimated that 8-9 million tonnes of paddy, or 5 to 5.6 million tonnes of milled rice, would be damaged by the flooding, which also affected rice stored at 35 warehouses.

Even so, Mrs Korbsook is confident that supply from non-flooded provinces in the North and Northeast will enter the market soon.

Despite the severe flooding, rice exports were active at 427,650 tonnes from Oct 1-18, compared with 456,000 tonnes in the same period last year.

But exports will struggle to match an average one million tonnes a month in the first nine months this year, which brought total rice exports to 9.45 million tonnes as of Oct 18.

The Office of Agricultural Economics also expects more supply from the Northeast, especially the second rice crop, thanks to proper water supply at natural reservoirs promoting the growth of upland rice, or khao don.

The office yesterday said rice plantations made up 13 million of the total 15 million rai of flood-hit farm areas.

Updated revenue losses from the farm sector alone amount to 80 billion baht.

Rice farmers initially will receive compensation of 2,222 baht per rai, 3,350 baht for crops and 5,098 baht for orchards.

Thai rice prices, the benchmark for Asia, have fallen 0.5% this week as a weakening baht made the grain cheaper, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

The price of 100% grade-B white rice dropped to $622 a tonne from $625 a week earlier, a spokesman said after the association's weekly price-setting meeting.

Source: Bangkok Post