In spite of severe criticism that its rice-pledging scheme will damage export competitiveness, the government aims to drive rice export to 9.5 million tonnes worth between US$6.8 billion and $7 billion (Bt210 billion to Bt215 billion) this year.

Manus Soiploy, director-general of the Foreign Trade Department of the Commerce Ministry, said yesterday that export volume and value would not fall as much as private exporters have predicted.

He said the government was confident that rice trading would be highly active in the third quarter of the year after importers and rice-consuming countries have lower stockpiles.

"Currently, the situation is in favour of importers, as there are high stockpiles of rice in many countries.

However, rice-exporting countries like Thailand will enjoy high export volume and high returns in the second half of the year when demand is back to normal."

Manus said climate change, high fuel prices and lower stockpiles held by importers and export rivals would increase demand for import of Thai rice in the second half.

India, which has resumed rice exports, may suspend them in the second half if its buffer stocks get too low or if its rice and wheat crops are hit by natural disasters, he added.

Recently Vietnam, the second-biggest rice exporter, said its export volume would reach 3 million to 3.5 million tonnes in the first half and 3.5 million tonnes in the second half.

According to Bloomberg, rice exports from Burma may more than double to 1.5 million tonnes this year, an industry group forecast, highlighting the country's potential to boost overseas trade as its government pursues reform.

Shipments may climb further to as much as 2 million tonnes next year and reach 3 million tonnes by 2015, the Myanmar Rice Industry Association told the news agency. Target markets for white-rice sales are Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines, it said. Sales totalled 700,000 tonnes in 2011.

An increase in exports may bolster global stockpiles, while boosting competition for Thailand, Vietnam and India. The projected gain may make Burma the world's sixth-largest shipper this year, with volumes at the highest level since the 1960s, when the country was the world's largest exporter, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.

"Burma coming into the market will take away some markets from Thailand, worsening Thai rice exports," said Vichai Sripasart, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

The department projects that Thailand's rice-export volume will reach 9.5 million tonnes this year, maintaining the country as the largest rice exporter. It expects the value of rice exports to increase by 7.9-11.1 per cent from last year to between $6.8 billion and $7 billion.

However, rice exporters have projected that Thailand will export only 6.5 million to 7 million tonnes this year because the government's high pledging price has made the country uncompetitive.

Thailand exported only 290,000 tonnes of rice in January.

In all of last year, Thailand exported 10.6 million tonnes of rice worth $6.5 billion, the volume up by 17 per cent year on year. The average price was $595 per tonne, up by 0.7 per cent from 2010.

Source: The Nation