Thailand's monthly rice exports are likely to drop to 400,000 tonnes from May onwards after shipments of parboiled rice to Nigeria are fulfilled, while India will beat Thailand's rice-export volume this year.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Thai traders share a similar view that Thai rice exports, which have increased over the past few months, will soon return to sluggishness as demand from importers drops because of the large price gap between Thailand and other rice-exporting countries, mainly India and Vietnam.

The USDA reported that there was a high possibility that Thailand would lose its title as the world's largest rice exporter to India or Vietnam, which have massive stockpiles and high production.

The department projected that India's rice-export volume would hit 7 million tonnes this year, the same as Vietnam. Thailand would be able to export only 6.5 million tonnes. If so, the Kingdom would lose its 30-year reign as the largest rice exporter, a status it has held since 1982.

If Thailand exports only 6.5 million tonnes, it will be the smallest amount in 12 years; in 2000, it exported 6.56 million tonnes of rice.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, the Thai Rice Exporters Association's honorary president, explained that export volume had increased to a monthly average of 600,000 tonnes in the past few months because the Nigerian government will raise the import tariff for rice this July to 53 per cent from 33 per cent currently. Thus Nigeria had to accelerate imports of parboiled rice from Thailand to help fill its stockpiles amid India's slow export process. India is another major supplier of parboiled rice.

However, he said Thailand's rice-export volume would drop to only 500,000 tonnes in the coming months, since Nigerian buyers have begun winding down their import orders.

Sermsak Kuonsongtum, vice president to the association, said export volume in May should be one of the highest figures this year, but after that exports would fall because of sluggish global demand as Indian and Vietnamese rice is much cheaper.

He said exports might recover if Indonesia decides to import a new lot of rice, possibly 1 million tonnes. In that case, Thailand should win some supply contracts. Moreover, Thailand may be able to shift some rice exports to Middle Eastern markets after Vietnam increased its rice price.

Sermsak said that because of the expected export slowdown, Thai rice traders have only acquired small volumes of stocks. Most of the rice from the current harvest season has entered the government's pledging project, which has guaranteed high prices for paddy rice.

According to the association, total rice exports from January 1 to April 11 were 1.84 million tonnes, down 45.72 per cent from 3.39 million tonnes during the same period last year.

Source: The Nation